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Likening the assessment to a viral outbreak, the Edmonton Sun and a leading expert examined Alberta's murder rates as the end of 2007 approached.

Always good-for-a-quote criminologist Bill Pitt was interviewed by the paper in the final week of November when both Edmonton and Calgary had 28 homicides each on the books.

"Calgary is starting to catch the Edmonton bug as far as homicides are concerned," said Pitt, noting the the cities are similar and plagued by the same problems.

"Homicides in both cities are very episodic. There are clusters and then nothing," he said.

While Edmonton's rate seemed to have slowed (36 murders in 2006, a record-high 39 in 2005), Calgary seemed poised to match its record 1992 total of 32. The southern city had already surpassed its total of 25 in 2006.

Less than 12% of murders are random, said Pitt. The recent killing of 65-year-old William James Kapach came to mind, possibly a thrill killing at the hands of a group of cowards according to the criminologist.

"They want to know what it feels like because they have nothing in their lives that means anything," he said.

While many have tied Edmonton’s murder rate to local economic indicators, the current boom may be a reason why homicides are down in numbers in 2007.

"People are working more. They’re more concerned about making money," Pitt said.

His views echoed those of Staff Sgt. Kevin Galvin, head of the Edmonton Police Service's Co-ordinated Crime Unit.

Speaking November 7th, 2007 at a media meet-and-greet, Galvin said the province has become the home of two dozen organised crime groups who have found enough room in the bountiful illicit economy to co-exist and co-operate peacefully.

"While the money is good there will be higher levels of tolerance between gangs and gang conduct and gang relationships," Galvin told reporters.

When business turns bad and cashflow is interrupted, things become problematic. The recent spate of violence in Vancouver has been attributed to a downturn in that area's drug trade, and according to Galvin that has resulted in markers being called in with fatal results.

Pitt eyed the calendar with cynical optimism, noting December was just a turn of the page away and the city usually sees a murder every 10 or 11 days.

"We could see another three or four by January 1 and then we’re at 32 or 33, which is about average for the last five years," he said – see note below.

The number of homicides in Edmonton will skyrocket as organised crime becomes entrenched in the city, Pitt predicted.

"Organised crime is attracted to this economy like bees to honey," he said. "This is the calm before the storm."

Carrying the Calgary-Edmonton match-up to its online poll, the Sun asked their readers which city is safer.

The one-day voluntary poll allowed only one response per computer.

Update: Edmonton did indeed record 33 murders in 2007, while Calgary finished with 30.

deadmonton - why edmonton? - Calgary is starting to catch the Edmonton bug

edmonton, alberta – the murder capital of canada